Second-year wide receivers have long been one of the cornerstones of winning in fantasy football. However, recent ADPs have made it more challenging to draft these breakouts, particularly on Underdog. This means that we need to pay particular attention when these players carry discounts. Rondale Moore goes at the end of the 10th round on Underdog and the 12th on FFPC. That he plays with Kyler Murray (owner of the highest ceiling projection among QBs in the Range of Outcomes app) in the explosive Cardinals offense makes him even more interesting. I also recently explored which star QBs are the most attractive targets at cost.
Unfortunately, Moore underperformed in his rookie season last year. He was never really able to get on the field as often as needed for fantasy purposes. When he did get on the field, his targets were not the type fantasy players look for, coming with an average depth of 1.7 yards. On the other hand, while an early drafted player’s rookie year is a significant factor in setting subsequent expectations, it isn’t what defines the rest of their career. The second-year breakout phenomenon is real; it is the year when receivers have by far their biggest jump in production.
We do not want to just blindly draft cheap second-year targets though. There is a profile we want to target. The criteria to look for in second-year breakouts who disappointed as rookies is:
- College breakout age
- Whether the player declared early for the NFL draft
- NFL draft position
- College market share
Given that Moore underperformed as a rookie, it is particularly important he aces the rest of the criteria.
