Welcome to the 53rd installment of The Wrong Read. Does draft age really matter for wide receiver prospects? The truth may surprise you — at least if you’ve been following this column for a little while. As Karl Popper put it, the most important evolutionary advantage of the argumentative use of language is that it “allows us to let theories die in our stead.” In…...

Welcome to the 46th installment of the “The Wrong Read.”  RotoViz writers have been profiling a lot of intriguing bounceback candidates. But there are a lot of players who underperformed expectations last year that we haven’t talked about, and a lot of fantasy owners expecting more in 2018. So what chance does the typical wide receiver have to bounce back after a down year?…...

This article introduces Historical Distribution Scores. It breaks down what they are, how they are calculated, and why they are relevant when considering a player’s range of outcomes. Articles focusing on each position and the calculated scores will be posted in the coming weeks. …...

In the coming weeks, I’ll be posting player specific projections for the 2018 season. Though these projections will be presented at an individual level, they will be built using a top-down approach…....

Welcome to the 41st installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Welcome to the 38th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Originally published February 27, Where Have All the WRs Gone is part of our Memorial Day look at the best of RotoViz. 2017 was a rough season for fantasy wide receivers and could be indicative of a downward trend for the position…....

Originally published March 23, Dynasty Rookies Are Free Money is part of our Memorial Day weekend free look at the best of RotoViz. Sharp dynasty owners will probably tell you that rookies are overrated and proven producers are the ones who’ll win you a title. Don’t listen to them…....

Welcome to the 33rd installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Welcome to the 36th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train…...

Welcome to the 35th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes…....

Welcome to the 34th installment of “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train of…...

In the past we’ve measured RB contributions in the receiving game in one of two ways. Either we measure their raw counting stats — i.e., the total number of receptions and receiving yards (which does have predictive value) — or we measure their receiving contribution as a percentage of team receiving production, via the College Dominator Rating. Both have drawbacks that make them less-than-perfect measurements…...

With the NFL Draft just weeks away, most of our attention is fully focused on the 2018 class and their landing spots. Today I wanted to look ahead to hopefully gain a better understanding of the current landscape for future classes of running backs — the 2020 class, in particular…....

When discussing wide receiver prospects, the importance of breakout age cannot be overstated. However, we haven’t yet applied this analysis to running backs. The great Jon Moore wrote an excellent piece on young RB dominance, and it certainly gets the mind thinking about the potential for breakout age at the position. The obvious struggle is figuring out the appropriate benchmark…....

If you’ve been following my work this off-season, you know that I’ve spent a lot of time trying to model incoming rookie wide receiver production at the next level. Models are certainly useful, and give us a tangible idea of what to expect from these players…....