Terry McLaurin finished college with underwhelming production, with a peak season of 701 receiving yards and a 20% dominator rating. However, he possessed near-elite athleticism with a 96th-percentile Speed Score and 76th-percentile Explosion Score. McLaurin immediately made a fantasy impact as a rookie, with three consecutive WR2 performances. He finished as WR30, with a downfield role, evidenced by his 14 air yards per target (No. 16) and substantial volume with a 0.64 WOPR (No. 10).
Although McLaurin’s efficiency regressed with 2.5 FPOE/G (No. 17) in Year 1, then 0.3 (No. 99) in Year 2, he consistently earned opportunities. McLaurin’s raw volume increased from 93 targets to 134 (No. 9) in Year 2, and the target share remained steady, hovering around 23-25% throughout his young career. We’ve identified a 2022 rookie comparing similarly to McLaurin, but is this a realistic expectation?
